After a prolonged period of declining costs, the global solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a significant and broad-based increase in module prices. This collective price rebound is not a random fluctuation but the result of multiple converging forces reshaping the supply chain and cost structure. Key drivers include a recovery in silicon feedstock values, a dramatic surge in silver prices, and a pivotal shift in China’s export policy, collectively pushing manufacturing costs upward while simultaneously accelerating technological innovation.
The foundation of this price adjustment lies in the polysilicon market. After hitting cyclical lows, polysilicon prices have staged a firm recovery. By the end of 2025, the average price had climbed to approximately CNY 53,600 per tonne, a notable increase from the CNY 35,400 per tonne level seen earlier. This rebound has exerted sustained cost pressure upstream, which has progressively filtered down to the module level.
However, the more acute and impactful cost driver in recent months has been the relentless rally in silver prices. As a critical conductive material in solar cell metallization paste, silver’s cost escalation has directly and substantially increased cell production expenses. Compared to the first half of 2025, silver prices have nearly doubled. This surge hits advanced cell technologies like TOPCon with particular severity. In TOPCon cell production, silver paste now accounts for nearly 40% of the total manufacturing cost, making the overall cost structure highly sensitive to its price volatility. Industry estimates suggest that for every increase of CNY 1,000 per kilogram in the silver price, the corresponding cost of a PV cell rises by about CNY 0.01 per watt. Consequently, over the past six to seven months alone, the soaring cost of metallization paste has pushed overall module production costs higher by an estimated CNY 0.07 to 0.08 per watt.
Compounding these market-driven factors is a decisive policy change from the world’s leading PV manufacturing hub. China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued Announcement No. 2 of 2026, stating that the Value-Added Tax (VAT) export rebate for PV products, among others, will be rescinded effective April 1, 2026. Abolishing export tax rebates for photovoltaic modules will help guide the industry towards a more rational structure, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and comprehensively address the problem of excessive competition. However, it will also lead to a short-term increase in market prices.
While these intertwined factors are driving a phase of higher prices, they are also acting as a powerful catalyst for technological evolution. The industry’s pursuit of reducing its reliance on expensive silver has moved from R&D labs to the forefront of production roadmaps. The transition to low-cost metal alternatives, particularly copper, is now gaining full momentum. Copper electroplating and other silver-alignment or silver-replacement technologies are poised for wider commercialization in 2026. This shift represents not just a cost-saving measure but a fundamental technological transformation that could redefine the industry’s cost structure and manufacturing processes in the coming years.
The stage is set for 2026 to be a pivotal year where cost pressures directly accelerate the adoption of next-generation, silver-free cell technologies, steering the sector toward its next chapter of sustainable growth.
Post time: Jan-22-2026